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Posts Tagged ‘growth’

BMI raises VN’s GDP growth forecast to 6 percent

In Uncategorized on August 12, 2010 at 7:23 pm

BMI raises VN’s GDP growth forecast to 6 percent

QĐND – Thursday, August 12, 2010, 20:32 (GMT+7)

With evidence of a consumer boom emerging, the Business Monitor International (BMI) boosted its GDP growth forecast for Vietnam this year to 6.0 percent, up from 4.4 percent earlier.

The BMI is predicting that the growth will come out at a vigorous annual average of 6.2 percent over the next five years.

In the “Vietnam Shipping Report Quarter 4 2010”, the BMI is projecting an increase in volume at the Port of Ho Chi Minh City (also known as SNP, SaigonNewPort), up by 6.2 percent, after the 5.2 percent contraction during the slump last year. At Da Nang Port (DNP) it sees this year’s volume gaining by 2.3 percent. Container throughput will also be in positive territory at both ports, up by 3.5 percent at SNP and by 6.2 percent at DNP (where container volumes are much smaller).

According to the BMI, Vietnam’s total imports and exports would see a recovery this year with 5.4 percent growth, followed by a slightly stronger pick-up in 2011, with 6.2 percent growth. Over the next five years, total foreign trade will expand at an annual average rate of 6.5 percent, the BMI calculated, adding that over this period, exports will grow at an average per annum rate of 7.3 percent, ahead of imports at 5.9 percent.

The BMI’s latest report on Vietnam wrote that though the possibility of the trade deficit and inflation both rising too sharply in the time to come, strong inflows of foreign direct investment would help as a counterweight on the foreign payments front, and also play a role in improving the country’s stretched infrastructure.

The BMI was in the opinion that in the second half of 2010 there are further signs of catch-up investment in Vietnam’s ports after a contract signed in June between the Gemalink Joint Stock Company and the Republic of Korea alliance Dealim-SAMWHA to develop the Gemalink Cai Mep Container Terminal and announcement in October 2009 by Japan’s largest shipping company, Mitsui OSK Line (MOL) of its plan to set up a terminal operation company to build and manage a new container terminal at Cai Mep.

Source: VNA

Photo: vinashinsoutheast

Source: QDND

France set for 0.3-percent growth in 3rd quarter: Bank

In Uncategorized on August 9, 2010 at 11:21 am

PARIS, Aug 9, 2010 (AFP) – The Bank of France forecast on Monday that the French economy would expand by 0.3 percent in the third quarter, following growth of 0.4 percent in the previous quarter.

The French statistics bureau INSEE is expected to publish on Friday its growth figures for the second quarter.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy (R)listens to a worker during a visit to the Saint Nazaire STX shipyard in July. AFP file

In June, INSEE said that gross domestic product (GDP) would expand by 0.5 percent in the second quarter, a boost for the economy which showed weak growth of 0.1 percent in the first quarter.

The rebound should continue “at a slow pace” with quarterly growth in the order of 0.4 percent in the second half of 2010, INSEE said.

Source: SGGP

APEC meeting vows to seek higher-quality economic growth

In Uncategorized on August 8, 2010 at 11:21 am

 Asian and Pacific countries agreed Sunday to improve the “quality” of their growth and help put the global economy back on track from its crisis.

Beppu City

The accord was reached at a meeting of ministerial-level officials as well as industrial and academic leaders from the 21 countries of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum.

International institutions including the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank were also represented at the two-day meeting, which ended Sunday in the Japanese resort of Beppu.

It was aimed at paving the ground for APEC leaders to work out an unprecedented “growth strategy” for the region at the forum’s annual summit in November in the Japanese port city of Yokohama.

“As the world’s leading growth centre, the APEC region has a great responsibility for the future course of the global economy,” said a statement from the co-chairmen of the meeting.

“APEC should contribute to improving the quality of growth in the global economy as well through its growth strategy, as envisaged by the APEC economic leaders last year,” said the statement posted APEC’s official website.

APEC leaders agreed at last year’s summit in Singapore to formulate the strategy in 2010 to “shape the region’s growth following the financial and economic crisis,” said the statement.

APEC was launched in 1989 to promote trade and strengthen economic cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region, which now accounts for more than half the world’s economic output and 40 percent of its population.

The grouping includes Australia, China, Japan, Peru, Russia, South Korea, Taiwan, the United States, and seven members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

“Countries in the region are exploring ways to shift their emphasis on economic development from exports to domestic demand,” Japanese trade minister Masayuki Naoshima told a news conference after co-chairing the meeting.

“Japan wants to cooperate in economic development by backing infrastructure projects,” said Naoshima. The other co-chairman was Satoshi Arai, the Japanese minister of state for economic and fiscal policy.

The meeting confirmed that APEC aims to achieve economic growth that is “balanced, inclusive, sustainable, innovative and secure,” the statement said.

Balanced growth should be led by “structural reforms” while inclusive growth features job creation — especially for women — human resources development and better access to finance, it added.

Energy efficiency will be the core of sustainable growth while innovative growth will be driven by an improvement in the research and development environment, the statement said.

The members of APEC can contribute to secure growth by working together in such areas as counter-terrorism, prevention of pandemic diseases and food security, the statement added.


Source: SGGP

Economic growth rate of 6.5 percent within reach

In Uncategorized on August 4, 2010 at 3:19 pm

Economic growth rate of 6.5 percent within reach

QĐND – Wednesday, August 04, 2010, 20:41 (GMT+7)


Results recorded over the past seven months will provide an important foundation for fulfilling all socio-economic development targets for this year, achieving an economic growth rate of 6.5 percent.

All ministries, sectors and localities need to exert greater efforts to stablise the macro economy by controlling prices and combating speculation and price rigging, said Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung at a government regular meeting on August 3-4.

At the meeting, cabinet members discussed the socio-economic status in July and during the past seven months, the world’s economic situation, the Government’s activities in July, issues related to inspection, complaints and denunciations, anti-corruption, administrative reform and a report on the Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry Group (Vinashin).

Over the past seven months, targets of stabilising the macroeconomy and curbing inflation have been fulfilled and remarkable progress has been made in the mobilisation and disbursement of investment capital, agriculture, social welfare, administrative reform,  anti-corruption, foreign affairs and national security and defense.

During the seven-month period, investment capital from the State budget reached VND77,600 billion, equivalent to 62 percent of the yearly plan. Total export turnover hit US$ 38.8 billion, up 17.5 percent over the same period last year. Import surplus fell to US$ 7.4 billion, accounting for 19.45 percent of the country’s total export turnover.

Market prices and inflation were put under strict control and the consumer price index (CPI) in the first seven months rose 8.67 percent over the same period last years, except for a slight increase of 0.06 percent in July. The seven-month industrial production value soared 13.5 percent over a year earlier and exceeded the target set for this year.

PM Dung pointed out pending issues and difficulties facing the national economy, such as relatively high trade deficit, soaring prices of materials, lack of capital, high interest rates and natural disasters and epidemics.

Mr Dung asked cabinet members to direct other cabinet members devise effective measures for the economic-related targets set for 2010.

He also requested ministries, sectors and localities to intensify industrial-agricultural production and service, expand domestic and export markets, accelerate the disbursement of investment capital, prepare capital construction plans for the 2011-2015 period, be active in coping with natural disasters and epidemics and enhancing administrative reform.

The Government leaders underlined the need to ensure security for international conferences and major national celebrations such as the 1000th anniversary of Thang Long-Hanoi and Party congresses at all levels in the lead-up to the 11th National Party Congress.

Cabinet members touched upon issues related to Vinashin and gave their opinions on a project for solutions and policies to increase the quality of growth, efficiency and competitiveness in the national economy as well as a project to develop Vietnam’s  information and technology industry, and communication and other important draft laws.

Source: VOV. Photo:

Source: QDND

US growth slows fueling fears over recovery

In Uncategorized on July 31, 2010 at 11:18 am

US economic growth slowed dramatically in the second quarter, the government has said, stoking fears that the recovery is losing steam and fueling a fierce political debate over how to respond.

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth fell back sharply to 2.4 percent in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said, slamming the brakes on an already tepid rebound and painting a bleak picture of the road ahead.

“The post-recession rebound is history,” said Bart van Ark, chief economist for The Conference Board, a leading business research group.

In the first quarter, growth hit 3.7 percent, up substantially from the 2.7 percent previously reported by government.

Amid weak consumer spending and a widening trade gap, few took solace from fresh data that appeared to confirm the US recession has ended and only marginally failed to meet analysts’ expectations of 2.5 percent growth.

President Barack Obama admitted more work needs to be done, but stressed the economy was on the right path, pointing to four consecutive quarters of growth.

“Our economy is growing again instead of shrinking. And that’s a welcome sign compared to where we were,” he said in Detroit.

“But we’ve got to keep on increasing that rate of growth and keep adding jobs so we can keep moving forward,” he said.

Revisions to previous GDP data Friday showed the recession was much worse than previously thought, with negative growth reaching a whopping 6.8 percent in the final three months of 2008.

“The fourth quarter of 2008 and first quarter of 2009 had the worst two quarterly declines in 51 years,” said Beth Ann Bovino, a senior economist Standard & Poor’s.

Detailed figures for the April-to-June period showed much of the slowdown came from businesses reining in inventory spending, which had grown rapidly in the wake of the financial crisis.

Increased imports — which are subtracted from the GDP figure, as that money flows abroad — also played a strong role.

Americans bought more, but that spending was tilted toward foreign goods and services.

“Purchases by US residents of goods and services wherever produced — increased 5.1 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 3.9 percent in the first,” the Commerce Department said.

“Imports of goods and services increased 28.8 percent, compared with an increase of 11.2 percent,” in the first quarter, it said.

Friday’s data fueled a fierce debate about whether the government needs to again jump start the economy, and how best that could be done.

Obama has clashed with Republicans over the need for government to help the ailing economy, making spending one of the most fiercely fought political battles in the US capital.

Obama’s critics accuse the president of putting Americans’ future at risk by causing US debt to balloon through ineffective stimulus spending.

In Detroit, Obama touted a 64-billion-dollar bailout that kept the Motor City’s automakers afloat, promoting it as the type of “tough decision” needed to avoid economic depression.

The White House claims one million auto jobs were saved by Obama’s actions, and GM and Chrysler have returned to profit.

Businesses offered a possible bright spot in the Commerce Department’s report, as their investment increased 17 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 7.8 percent in the first.

Shoppers and pedestrians walk past an extrance to Macy’s Department Store in New York.

“Business investment was up substantially,” said Stephen Gallagher of Societe Generale, sounding a note of caution.

“Stronger profits are behind the business investment, but unfortunately, these profits are not sparking as much employment growth.”

According to economist Peter Morici, American consumers will have to start spending again if the recovery is to gain traction.

“Unless spending picks up… once businesses stop piling up unsold goods, layoffs will outnumber hires, unemployment will rise with a vengeance, and the economy will head into a second dip.”

Source: SGGP

Tourism sees big growth this year

In Uncategorized on July 29, 2010 at 3:19 pm

Tourism sees big growth this year

QĐND – Thursday, July 29, 2010, 20:39 (GMT+7)

Vietnam welcomed around 410,000 foreign tourists in July, bringing the total number of foreign visitors to the nation in the first seven months of the country to more than 2.9 million, a year-on-year rise of almost 35 percent.

The Vietnam National Administration of Tourism said the number of foreigners coming to Vietnam for work increased by 46 percent, followed by those for vacation, up by more than 44 percent.

The number of foreign tourists from China recorded an impressive growth of 95.4 percent; followed by Cambodia (up 93 percent), Thailand (32 percent) and the Republic of Korea (RoK) (31 percent).

HCM City took the lead in attracting foreign tourists in the first seven months of the year, with over 1.6 million arrivals, a rise of 13 percent from last year.

Experts say the increase in foreign holidaymakers to Vietnam was attributable to the world’s economic recovery that helped boost tourism demand.

Vietnam has organized tourism promotion programmes and cultural exchanges in China, Japan, the RoK and Cambodia in addition to road shows in Australia, Norway and West European countries.

The country is expected to receive 4.5-4.6 million foreign tourists this year, a year-on-year rise of more than 17 percent.

Source: VNA

Source: QDND

Australia slashes growth forecast

In Uncategorized on July 15, 2010 at 12:59 pm

SYDNEY (AFP) – Australia Wednesday slashed its annual growth forecast to 3.0 percent due to global economic volatility, but said the economy was well placed to ride out further shocks.

New estimates reduced 2010-2011 growth from the 3.25 percent predicted in the May budget, but said the economy would increase by 3.75 percent in 2011-2012, with unemployment dropping to 4.75 percent.

The skyline of Sydney, the most populous city in Australia and also the largest financial centre. AFP photo

“Since the 2010-2011 budget, uncertainty around the global economic recovery has increased,” said a government statement.

“Despite this increased uncertainty and renewed volatility in global financial markets, the outlook for the domestic economy remains positive.”

The announcement was made with Prime Minister Julia Gillard poised to call national elections, in which her Labor Party will campaign strongly on its economic credentials.

Sydney’s stockmarket shrugged off the downward growth revision, closing up 1.87 percent on greater optimism around the region after gains on Wall Street.

Resource-rich Australia was dubbed the “wonder from Down Under” for its performance during the financial crisis, when it was the only advanced country to avoid recession.

Last October, Australia became the first major Western economy to ease monetary stimulus by raising interest rates. It hiked them a further five times before June.

Treasurer Wayne Swan, whose massive 70 billion dollar (60 billion US) stimulus package helped keep the economy afloat, said Australia remained the envy of the developed world.

Unemployment is now expected to drop from 5.1 percent at present to 4.75 percent in 2011-2012, while the budget remains on track to return to surplus within three years.

“Our economy continues to be stronger and our unemployment lower than in most other advanced economies,” Swan told reporters in Canberra.

“This is a remarkable achievement when you consider that economies in Europe and the United States are grappling with double-digit unemployment.”

However, he admitted that Australia was facing an uneven recovery with many sectors struggling to keep pace with the runaway mining industry, which is riding a boom in Asian demand.

“We understand that particularly in parts of retail at the moment, that a lot of them are doing it tough,” Swan said. “The stimulus has basically faded… and that is felt out there. That is why we need to move forward.”

Australia is tackling wide-ranging tax reform to spread the benefits of economic growth, but ran into trouble over a big new levy targeting the mining industry.

The row fatally damaged ex-leader Kevin Rudd before he was ousted last month by Gillard, his former deputy, who quickly announced a compromise deal.

Consumer confidence has slumped in recent months in line with the stock market and the Australian dollar, although a new survey released on Wednesday showed a bounce-back of more than 11 percent.

The study was conducted after the central bank kept rates on hold at 4.50 percent, easing pressure on mortgage-holders, and new employment figures showed a record 11.1 million people in work.

Source: SGGP

China’s economic growth slows in second quarter

In Uncategorized on July 15, 2010 at 12:55 pm

China said Thursday its economic growth slowed in the second quarter, as massive stimulus spending was scaled back and moves to rein in soaring property prices started to bite.

Gross domestic product in the world’s third-largest economy maintained double-digit growth for the third quarter in a row, expanding 10.3 percent in the three months to June, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

The latest figures add to mounting evidence that the Chinese economy is losing steam, although Beijing has so far shown no intention of reversing tightening policies, and analysts downplayed the risk of a sharp slowdown.

“Generally speaking, the economy is running well,” NBS spokesman Sheng Laiyun told reporters.

Sheng said the moderate slowdown in growth in the second quarter would “help prevent the economy… from overheating,” but added: “There are still a lot of difficulties and problems in the course of economic recovery.”

The second quarter figure marked a slowdown from the blistering 11.9 percent growth in January-March and the 10.7 percent in the last three months of 2009, after Beijing introduced a range of measures to cool the red-hot economy.

The economy grew 11.1 percent in the first half of 2010 compared with the same period a year earlier, the data showed.

Analysts said economic growth was expected to slip to single digits in the second half, but dismissed the idea of any serious troubles in the short term.

“Despite the slowing growth, we think the chance for double-dip in China is quite small as China?s pragmatic policymakers are quite flexible on policy stance,” said Lu Ting, an economist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch.

“They still have a deep pocket to buffer any big slowdown.”

The closely watched consumer price index, the main gauge of inflation, rose 2.9 percent on-year in June alone, compared with 3.1 percent in the previous month, the statistics bureau said.

The slowdown in inflation added to mounting evidence that the government’s measures to avert economic overheating were kicking in.

Inflation was up 2.6 percent in the first half of 2010 from a year earlier.

Morgan Stanley economist Wang Qing said there was a “high probability” the government would increase its 7.5 trillion yuan (1.1 trillion dollars) bank lending target for this year as inflation continues to ease.

“In light of receding inflationary pressures, the policy stance in the second half will likely demonstrate an easing bias,” said Wang.

China’s fixed asset investment in urban areas, a measure of government spending on infrastructure and a key driver of the economy, rose 25.5 percent in the first half from the same period last year, the government said.

Industrial output from the country’s millions of factories and workshops increased 17.6 percent on year in the six-month period.

Retail sales, a key measure of consumer spending, rose 18.2 percent in the first half of 2010 from a year ago.

Recent data also showed bank lending, real estate prices and imports all slowed in June from the previous month, while surveys of purchasing managers at factories across China showed manufacturing activity eased last month.

Beijing has shown no intention of altering its policy tightening stance despite signs the economy is running out of puff, and has begun to rein in the huge stimulus spending put in place in the wake of the global financial crisis.

Chinese workers perch on scaffolding at a construction site in Hefei, central China’s Anhui province.

In recent weeks, China also has loosened its grip on the yuan exchange rate by allowing the currency to trade more freely against the dollar, while export tax rebates on some products have been removed.

“It’s more of a wait-and-see attitude from Beijing’s leaders,” said Ken Peng, a Beijing-based economist for Citigroup.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said last month he believed the economy was moving in the “expected direction”, which was interpreted as a sign that the government planned to stick to current policies.

Wen’s comments came after President Hu Jintao, in a speech to the Group of 20 summit in Canada, called for caution in exit strategies from economic stimulus programmes to safeguard the global recovery.

Source: SGGP

Inherent shortcomings, not crisis impact, limit growth

In Uncategorized on July 15, 2010 at 12:49 pm

Vietnam’s economic growth is unsustainable, not because of the effects of the global economic crisis, but because of the shortcomings inherent in the economy, Dr. Tran Du Lich, deputy head of the Ho Chi Minh City National Assembly Delegation, told Sai Gon Giai Phong.

To move towards sustainable growth, key factors like infrastructure, education, human resources and finance need to be focused on (Photo: SGGP)

For the midrange to long term future, shifting the growth model and the economy from out-sourcing to production are the largest and most important challenges, he said.
Dr. Lich added that the time being, short-term challenges don’t matter if the Government’s macroeconomic measures are implemented effectively by the end of this year.
According to Mr. Lich, sustainable growth is based on three factors: strong infrastructure, education and human resources, and a steadily developing financial system that includes public finance, a credit-banking system and non-bank financial institutions.
But these factors are very weak in the country, putting targets set for a high economic growth out of reach, he added.
A deep trade gap and inflation have emerged from the long implementation of an economic growth model that was not based on labor productivity and investment effectiveness. 
If the model is not changed, problems such as the trade gap, payment balance, and stabilization of the dong will never be solved, he said.
Mr. Lich attributed the trade gap to the massive import of machines, equipment and materials, saying they were mostly for consumption, not for production.
He said Vietnam also consumes more than it produces, another fundamental flaw.
According to Mr. Lich, the Vietnamese economy has gradually recovered from the global crisis, however, to continue the growth and move towards sustainable growth, the Government needs to focus on key factors like infrastructure, education, human resources and finance.
He said in terms of GDP, the economy has reached a growth rate equal to that of the pre-crisis period of 2006-2007 since the second half of last year, and this year growth can reach a rate that is higher than the targeted 6.5 percent.
Through the end of this year, the Government needs to adopt many measures, including technical and non tariff barriers, to restrain the trade gap at less than 20 percent of total export turnovers, to reduce the deficit and increase foreign currency reserves, he added.
He said lessons drawn from the Vinashin case should teach the Government to stop borrowing for enterprises or acting as a guarantor for them to borrow.
Instead, the Government can subsidize a part of loan interest rates, or borrow loans at low rates and then give the loans to commercial banks to re-loan it to enterprises, Mr. Lich suggested.
If necessary, the Government should assist key economic sectors that have low financial capacity but high social effectiveness, he added.

Source: SGGP

Textiles and garments need steady growth

In Uncategorized on July 4, 2010 at 4:09 pm

Textiles and garments need steady growth

QĐND – Sunday, July 04, 2010, 20:55 (GMT+7)

Although textiles and garments have experienced constant growth, there are still serious problems facing the sector such as a labour shortage and reliance on imported materials.

Positive signs of growth

After seeing an average growth of 30 percent in recent years, Vietnam is now one of the world’s 10 biggest textile and garment exporters, accounting for 2.7 percent of the global market. In addition to finished products, Vietnam’s cotton fibre is now becoming popular in markets such as Turkey and Brazil.

With an export turnover of US$4.8 billion in the first two quarters of 2010, up 17 percent compared to last year, and US$1.4 billion more than that of crude oil, textiles and garments are now leading the major export products of Vietnam.

The US is now Vietnam’s biggest market with a growth rate of 15 percent, followed by Japan with 10 percent, and new markets like Taiwan, the Republic of Korea, and ASEAN.

In the US and Japanese markets, Vietnam’s textile and garment products hold the second biggest share after China. Vietnamese businesses also have contracts to export their product through the end of the year.

It seems quite possible for businesses to meet the target of earning US$10.5 billion by the end of this year, says Le Quoc An, chairman of the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association.

Vietnam’s textile and garment sector currently has many advantages in attracting importers, raising its prestige and the competitiveness of its products.

However, the sector is facing many problems caused by the fluctuation of the financial market, prices of materials, and workforce.

Labour shortage

The labour shortage is one of a serious problem that puts pressure on textile and garment businesses.

Nguyen Ngoc Lan from Nha Be Garment Company said that although his company has signed contracts to export products through the first quarter of 2011, he is very worried about the shortage of workers.

It is, therefore, very necessary ensure the workforce for the production by boosting the productivity and increasing salaries for workers, Lan said.

Businesses are also looking forward to the state’s support policies, said Lan, adding that the department of taxation and the customs office need to hold workshops to help export businesses iron out snags.

Over-reliance on imported materials

In addition, the local garment sector relies too much on imported materials. The sector’s exports were valued at US$4.8 billion in the first half of this year, while its import of materials cost US$3.7 billion in the first five months, up 33.5 percent compared to a year earlier.

Economists say that Vietnamese garment and textile products are likely to enjoy more favourable competitive advantages in US and EU markets than Chinese products of the same kind which will have higher prices after China’s adjustment of its currency exchange rate relative to the US dollar on June 22, which increase the value of the Chinese yuan, driving up the price of Chinese garment materials.

However, they estimate that about 70 percent of Vietnam’s imported garment materials come from China, so the surging price will also lead to rising production costs for made-in-Vietnam products. Furthermore, the local garment sector is still facing difficulties in retaining partners and improving product quality to meet demanding foreign markets.

Senior economic expert Bui Kien Thanh emphasises that those products using a high proportion of imported materials from China will not have an export advantage. Only those products using locally-made materials will benefit, he adds.

Creating high added-value for garment products

The garment sector is striving to produce more materials domestically to ensure sustainable growth.

The Prime Minister has approved a cotton-growing project which will be implemented through 2015.

The Vietnam National Textile and Garment Group (Vinatex) also plans to invest more than VND1,400 billion in creating a higher added-value for home-made products. The group is cooperating with the Vietnam National Oil and Gas Group (PVN) to build the Dinh Vu fibre plant in the northern port city of Hai Phong, which is expected to meet the sector’s demand.

Moreover, four garment and dye centres will also be established in Ninh Binh, Nam Dinh, Long An and Tra Vinh provinces to encourage domestic and foreign businesses to invest in producing garment and textile materials.

Developing material input has become an urgent task of the garment sector to reduce production costs and increase competitiveness in the global market. Export growth must match for the increasing added-value of each product so that the sector can sharpen its competitive edge and account for a large proportion in the country’s export structure.

Source: VOV

Source: QDND